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Bet Probability

Source: R/bet_prob.R
bet_prob.Rd

This function returns the win, loss, and push probabilities of a given bet based on the current line and your predicted line.

Usage

bet_prob(pred_spread, spread, sport = "NBA")

Arguments

pred_spread

Predicted spread for the team you want to bet on

spread

Spread for the team that you want to bet on (-3.5, -7, 4, 2.5)

sport

Sport/League of the teams being bet on. Possible values are:

  • NBA, National Basketball Association

  • NCAAB, College Basketball

  • NFL, National Football League

  • NCAAF, College Football

Value

probs Plot of the simulation as well as the percentage of simulations that were positive and negative.

References

Stern, Hal. "The Probability of Winning a Football Game as a function of the Pointspread." The American Statistician 45, no. 3 (1991): 179-83. Accessed July 18, 2020. doi:10.2307/2684286. https://statistics.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj6031/f/COV%20NSF%2059.pdf

Stern, Hal. "On the Probability of Winning a Football Game." The American Statistician 45, no. 3 (1991): 179-83. Accessed July 18, 2020. doi:10.2307/2684286. https://www-jstor-org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/stable/2684286

Winston, Wayne L. "From Point Ratings to Probabilities." In Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football, 290-97. PRINCETON; OXFORD: Princeton University Press, 2009. Accessed July 18, 2020. doi:10.2307/j.ctt7sj9q.48.

Examples

bet_prob(-9, -3.5, sport = "NFL")
#>   Win.Probability Lose.Probability Push.Probability
#> 1       0.6542519        0.3457481                0
bet_prob(-7, -3, sport = "NBA")
#>   Win.Probability Lose.Probability Push.Probability
#> 1       0.6147293        0.3538302       0.03144052
bet_prob(21, 10.5, sport = "NCAAF")
#>   Win.Probability Lose.Probability Push.Probability
#> 1       0.2558316        0.7441684                0
bet_prob(-3, 5, sport = "NCAAB")
#>   Win.Probability Lose.Probability Push.Probability
#> 1       0.7733726        0.1976625       0.02896481